London: This year marks the 750 years of the first sitting of
British parliament and 800th anniversary of the signing of the Magna
Carta. Over the years, many countries have referred to and borrowed from
the Westminster Model of representative democracy while drafting their
constitutions; adapting to the needs and requirements of their
respective demographics.
And then they have moved on allowing the force
of people's mandate to usher in coarse corrections.
Despite Tories and the Liberal Democrat running a coalition
government for a full term, Britain it seems has still not been able to
reconcile to the changed paradigm in its polity. As campaign to elect a
new Parliament and government comes to an end, the concern remains a
hung Parliament forcing post poll negotiations and alliance building an
integral component in government formation.
So used to the bi-polar polity between the Conservatives and the
Labour, for many the emergence of regional and insurgent forces has
disturbed the equilibrium. The discomfiture persists despite countries
all about Britain and far-off have adapted to the era of coalition
politics.
India too had had a long stint with coalition politics beginning
1989, both at the Centre and states. In politics, a fractured polity is a
manifestation of the people's will. Willy-nilly, political parties have
to adapt to it and work accordingly. And stability is no guarantee to
the performance of government, which can be so aptly exhibited by a
comparison of UPA's first and second term in office.
Slowly yet steadily, when all the opinion polls are predicting a
hung Parliament in the May 7 elections, a sense of fait accompli seems
to be percolating down. No one is expected to get a clear majority is
seems in the House of Commons with 650 seats.
If United Kingdom Independent Party (UKIP) led by Nigel Farage
with its anti-EU stance has dented the Tories down south, the Scottish
National Party riding on the momentum of the unsuccessful referendum has
almost swept the Labour out of their Scottish strongholds.
Interestingly now, a country so oblivious to the complications
and compulsions of coalition politics is beginning to accept the changed
paradigm- though reluctantly as fait-accompli. Terms like tactical
voting, post poll alliances are entering the lexicon.
The Guardian reported the other day that conservatives might
transfer their vote to Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg who was on the
verge of losing his constituency. This is to ensure that Labour does
not gain the seats Lib Dem looses for Clegg is more inclined to join a
Tory led coalition post polls. A lesson or two from India, especially
Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party on vote transfer would be quite
enlightening to British politicians.
The upsurge of regional forces in the form of the Scottish
National Party has disturbed many calculations. The reality of the
fractured polity was so in the face early in the elections when SNP
leader Nicola Sturgeon was seen to a clear winner by many observers in a
TV debate which had participants from seven parties including Tories
and Labour led by their respective leaders David Cameron and Ed
Miliband.
With just hours before the votes are to be cast, the debate has
taken another interesting turn with all the hues of coalition politics.
Who is to be invited to form the government in a hung Parliament- the
single largest party? The incumbent PM has a right to continue in office
and prove his majority?
Sounds familiar, isn't it. Some refer the 1994 SR Bommai vs Union of India case please.
(Sumit Pande is Political Editor, CNN-IBN. He is currently a
Journalist Fellow at Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism at
University of Oxford)
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